格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20251126

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has soared to 80% as several Fed governors signaled dovish stances [1][2]. - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and without the AI boom, the economy might have slipped into recession [1]. - The capital expenditure of the top five tech giants in 2026 is estimated to have soared to $533 billion, and the construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Information - Fed officials including Mary Daly, John Williams, and Christopher Waller advocated for a December rate cut, causing the market's rate - cut bets to surge from 40% to 80% [1]. - Investment giants like Gundlach and Dalio advised holding physical gold as a defense, warning that debt - driven asset prices are far from real values and may lead to an economic collapse [1]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and a slump in AI stock prices or a slowdown in investment could trigger a recession [1]. - The US President launched the "Genesis Plan" to use AI to transform scientific research, and the Energy Department will create an AI experimental platform [1]. - Tesla's AI5 chip is in the tape - out stage, and the R & D of AI6 has started, with a goal to launch a new generation of AI chip design every 12 months [1]. - Google is promoting TPU chips to large customers, which have lower development costs and power consumption compared to NVIDIA GPUs [1]. - Amazon will invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and super - computing capabilities for the US government in 2026, adding nearly 1.3 gigawatts of computing power [1]. - The US government plans to invest $80 billion in restarting nuclear power construction, aiming to build 8 reactors at four locations and control the single - unit cost at $10 billion [1]. - Anthropic released the Claude Opus 4.5 model, which outperformed Gemini 3 Pro and GPT - 5.1 in programming evaluations [2]. 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased to 80%, and Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2]. - Foreign capital has shifted from the South Korean stock market to China's technology sector [2]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2]. - The capital expenditure of the five major tech giants in 2026 is estimated to reach $533 billion, and the construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. - The planned capacity of US data centers has surged to 245 gigawatts, and developers are building their own power plants in energy - producing areas [2]. - US stock market retailization is accelerating, with retail investors being one of the largest net buyers this year, especially in the options market [2]. - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been mostly exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2]. - Unemployment among 25 - year - old and above with at least a bachelor's degree in the US exceeded 1.9 million in September, and large - scale layoffs by companies may be an economic warning [2].