西部证券晨会纪要-20251126

Group 1: Chemical & New Materials Industry Strategy - The chemical industry is expected to reach a turning point due to valuation and profit bottoming out, driven by anti-involution policies and resource supply contraction, with demand gradually recovering [4][5] - As of November 20, 2025, the chemical sector has seen a 37% increase, with the basic chemical sector's net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [4] - The demand side is supported by the Federal Reserve restarting the interest rate cut cycle and stabilizing global political situations, while domestic exports and the automotive sector bolster demand [4][5] Group 2: Resource Supply and Demand Dynamics - Potash prices are expected to rise in 2026, with the industry maintaining a tight supply-demand balance from 2026 to 2028 [5] - The phosphoric chemical sector is facing capacity constraints, with projected demand for phosphoric acid from 2025 to 2027 being 42.33 million tons, 43.26 million tons, and 43.88 million tons respectively [5] - The refrigerant sector is experiencing supply restrictions due to quota limitations, leading to a steady increase in market conditions for second and third-generation refrigerants [5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the potash sector include Dongfang Iron Tower, Yaqi International, and Salt Lake Co [6] - In the phosphoric chemical sector, recommended companies include Chuanheng Co, Yuntu Holdings, and Xingfa Group [6] - The organic silicon industry is expected to see a supply-demand balance improve in 2026, with companies like Dongyue Silicon Material and Xingfa Group being highlighted [6] Group 4: AI and Semiconductor Demand - The demand for high-performance new materials is driven by the explosion in AI and semiconductor needs, with electronic resins and fillers seeing rapid growth [6] - The semiconductor materials sector is focusing on domestic supply chain security, emphasizing the importance of local production [6] - The cooling liquid market is expected to grow due to increasing server power demands, with immersion cooling becoming a significant future direction [6] Group 5: Company Performance - Kuaishou-W - Kuaishou-W reported Q3 2025 revenue of 35.554 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with net profit reaching 4.488 billion yuan, up 37% year-on-year [15][16] - The average daily active users (DAU) for Kuaishou in Q3 2025 was 416 million, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year growth [15] - The company is actively commercializing its AI business, with AI revenue exceeding 300 million yuan in Q3 2025, contributing to a 4%-5% increase in online marketing revenue [16][17]