商品期货早班车-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand situations of each commodity and gives corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Market price oscillated on Tuesday, with London gold blocked at $4150. Weak US economic data increased rate - cut expectations. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - Silver: Supply tightness gradually eased. Suggest gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - Copper: Price rose and then fell. December rate - cut is likely, and the market discussed the possibility of a dovish official becoming the next Fed Chair. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [3]. - Aluminum: The main contract price rose by 0.40% to 21,465 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. Expected to maintain oscillating adjustment [3]. - Alumina: The main contract price fell by 0.33% to 2,727 yuan/ton. Supply had narrow fluctuations, and demand was high. Expected to show an oscillating and slightly bearish trend before large - scale production cuts [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main 01 contract price rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton. Supply might decline in November, and demand was supported. The price was expected to move between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The LC2605 contract price rose by 5.76% to 97,340 yuan/ton. Supply was high, and demand increased. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term. Pay attention to inventory data [4]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main 01 contract price rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Near - month prices were anchored to the spot range. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - Tin: Price was oscillating and slightly bullish. December rate - cut was likely. Supply was tight, and demand was on - demand. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [4]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2601 contract price rose to 3,097 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and supply - demand was weak. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for RB01 is 3,060 - 3,110 yuan/ton [5]. - Iron Ore: The main 2601 contract price rose to 795.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking Coal: The main 2601 contract price fell to 1,067 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for JM01 is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean prices rose slightly. Supply was contracting in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong. US soybeans were expected to be oscillating, and the domestic market's medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [6]. - Corn: Futures prices were oscillating and slightly bullish. Supply was delayed due to weather, and demand was strong. However, new production was expected to increase. Suggest waiting and watching [6]. - Eggs: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply pressure decreased, and short - term prices were slightly bullish but with limited sustainability. Expected to oscillate [7]. - Vegetable Oils: Palm oil prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - Sugar: The 01 contract price rose slightly. International prices might bottom - out in the long - term, and domestic pressure was high. Suggest shorting futures and selling call options [7]. - Cotton: US cotton prices rebounded, and domestic prices rose. Suggest buying at low prices, with a strategy in the 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton range [7]. - Pigs: Futures prices were weaker in the near - term. Supply was abundant, and demand might increase seasonally. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish [7]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: Price fell slightly. Supply pressure was rising but at a slower pace, and demand was weak. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [8][9]. - PTA: PX supply was high, and PTA supply decreased in the short - term. PX was expected to be bullish in the long - term, and short - term PTA supply - demand improved. Suggest taking profits on long PX and short PTA processing - fee positions [9]. - Rubber: Price fell by 0.85%. Inventory increased. Expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. - PP: Price fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [9]. - MEG: Supply was high, and inventory increased. Suggest shorting at high prices for the 01 contract and taking partial profits [10]. - Crude Oil: Price fell sharply. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Suggest holding short positions [10]. - Styrene: Price oscillated slightly. Supply - demand improved in the short - term but might weaken later. Expected to oscillate, with upside limited by the import window [10].