铝：等待指引，氧化铝：承压下行，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The aluminum market is waiting for guidance, the alumina market is under pressure and declining, and the cast aluminum alloy market follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum is neutral (0), alumina is weakly bearish (-1), and aluminum alloy is neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,465, with a change of 85 compared to T - 1. LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,813, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of SHFE and LME aluminum contracts have different degrees of change. The LME注销仓单占比 is 10.97%, down 0.36% from T - 1. The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread is -31.16, up 1.72 from T - 1 [1]. - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract is 2,727, down 9 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also show changes. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract is -35, and the cost of buying near - month and selling consecutive first inter - period arbitrage is 26.78 [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,705, up 70 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest have decreased [1]. Spot Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The pre - baked anode market price is 5,887, with no change compared to T - 1. The processing fees of aluminum rods and bars in different regions have different changes. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 5,361.90, up 80.00 compared to T - 1. The import profit and loss of aluminum spot and 3M have different degrees of change. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 60.40 million tons, with no change compared to T - 1 [1]. - Alumina: The average domestic alumina price is 2,85୧, with no change compared to T - 1. The arrival price of alumina in Lianyungang in dollars and yuan per ton has different change trends [1]. - Aluminum Bauxite: The prices of bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea and the price of Yangquan bauxite have no significant changes compared to T - 1 [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -142, up 166 compared to T - 1. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,700, with no change compared to T - 1. The combined inventory of three places is 49,904, down 296 compared to T - 1 [1]. - Caustic Soda: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,630, with no change compared to T - 1 [1]. Market News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on November 25 that Trump may announce the new Fed Chairman before Christmas. Bessent also advocated that the Fed should return to its behind - the - scenes role before the financial crisis and play down market intervention. The current Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the December meeting is still expected to achieve the third interest rate cut [3]. - Trump's chief economic advisor, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, is considered the leading candidate for the Fed Chairman. Hassett is believed to be highly consistent with Trump's economic view, including the view that interest rates should be lowered [3].