Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Five Minerals Futures Morning Report | Non-ferrous Metals [1][31][78] - Date: November 26, 2025 Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight raw material supply, and strong downstream demand [5] - Aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after adjustment as global visible inventory is low and supply disruptions are expected, despite the approaching off - season [8] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to increased supply, stable domestic demand, and rising inventory [10] - Zinc prices are predicted to be weak in the short term as the zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and recent financial assets are performing weakly [12] - Tin prices are expected to be in a tight - balance state in the short term and may fluctuate, with support from emerging demand and potential supply increases [14] - Nickel prices are likely to be under pressure in the short term due to supply increases and weak demand [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have significant market differences, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on first - quarter cell production and equity market sentiment [21] - Alumina prices are suggested to be observed in the short term as the industry has over - capacity and potential supply - side changes [24] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate as the market has a mixed situation of price increases and weak demand [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to be volatile in the short term with strong cost support and average demand [30] Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - 行情资讯: Offshore RMB strengthened, oil prices were pressured, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and import losses widened [4] - 策略观点: With a high probability of Fed rate cut in December and eased geopolitical risks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The reference range for SHFE copper is 85,800 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,700 - 10,900 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - 行情资讯: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic futures positions and warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and market activity decreased [7] - 策略观点: Global visible inventory is low, and supply disruptions are expected. Aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,830 dollars/ton [8] Lead - 行情资讯: Lead prices declined. Domestic and overseas inventories changed, and the basis and spreads showed certain trends [9] - 策略观点: Supply is increasing, domestic demand is stable, and inventory is rising. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] Zinc - 行情资讯: Zinc prices declined slightly. Zinc ore supply is tight due to winter stockpiling, and zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly [11] - 策略观点: The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12] Tin - 行情资讯: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by raw material shortages, and demand from emerging fields provides support. Inventory increased slightly, and there are geopolitical risks in Congo (Kinshasa) [13] - 策略观点: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for domestic SHFE tin is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [14] Nickel - 行情资讯: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices declined [16] - 策略观点: Nickel supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - 行情资讯: Lithium carbonate prices rose. The spot index and futures prices increased [20] - 策略观点: There are differences in the market regarding short - term demand and future supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract is 92,200 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - 行情资讯: Alumina prices declined slightly. The basis, overseas prices, and inventory showed certain trends [23] - 策略观点: Overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the industry has over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - 行情资讯: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased slightly [26] - 策略观点: Spot prices increased, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - 行情资讯: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded slightly. The contract price, inventory, and basis changed [29] - 策略观点: Cost support is strong, and supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]
有色金属日报-20251126
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-26 02:18