Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For the vegetable oil market, the report indicates that the market is showing a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, soybean oil is testing key support levels, and palm oil is the weakest. Given the downward break of palm oil, it is advisable to short on rallies. For the protein (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market, after the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited. It is recommended to stage new long positions [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market 1. Market Review - On November 24, due to weak demand and rising inventory build - up expectations, Malaysian palm oil weakened, and Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8090 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 1345 lots. The secondary main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7890 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1079 lots. The main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1873 lots. The secondary main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8442 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 19203 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9818 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 21536 lots. The secondary main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9488 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 3779 lots [1]. 2. Important Information - On November 25, NYMEX crude oil futures fell about 1% due to progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. If sanctions on Russian energy trade are lifted, the international crude oil market will be under pressure. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.89 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $57.95 a barrel. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut subsidies for imported biofuels by one to two years. The plan, originally scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, aims to reduce dependence on imported biofuels and improve the competitiveness of domestic fuels. - The Brazilian government may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, and achieving this goal is "extremely difficult". - From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.96% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the 1,182,216 tons exported from October 1 - 25. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, causing the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year to decline by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, an increase of 23,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 11.40%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.404 million tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 2.28% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%; edible palm oil inventory was 591,600 tons, an increase of 35,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.31% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%; rapeseed oil inventory was 439,300 tons, a decrease of 43,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.95% [1][3]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the US is promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine, causing international crude oil to continue to decline under pressure. At the same time, the US domestic biodiesel policy is fluctuating, causing US soybean oil to rise first and then fall. India's palm oil import data has dropped significantly, and the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has not significantly decreased, leading to market concerns about increased inventory pressure and the downward break of Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient, and the overall inventory of domestic vegetable oils is in good condition, resulting in a weak basis for soybean oil. However, domestic oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in import and crushing profits, and they face huge profit pressure. There may be price - supporting actions in the future. The poor export data of Malaysian palm oil and its downward break have dragged down the domestic palm oil to follow the weak trend. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted. The rapeseed oil at East China ports continues to be destocked, while the destocking rhythm in other regions is relatively slow. The spot price fluctuates with the futures market, and the basis quotes are generally stable with slight adjustments [1][3]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, all previous long positions in palm oil should be closed, and shorting on rallies should be the main strategy. Soybean oil is testing the support level, and if it breaks below, the downward space will open up. Rapeseed oil should be treated as strong. The resistance level for the Y2601 contract is 9000, and the support level is 8000; for the Y2605 contract, the resistance level is 8400, and the support level is 7840; for the P2601 contract, the resistance level is 8562, and the support level is 8270; for the P2605 contract, the resistance level is 8626, and the support level is 8200; for the OI2601 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9299; for the OI2605 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9000. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [1][3]. Protein (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market 1. Market Review - On November 25, the domestic protein sector showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed meal being strong and bean meal being weak, presenting a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main bean meal contract M2601 closed at 3013 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 33,444 lots; the secondary main bean meal contract M2605 closed at a certain price (not clearly stated in a convenient way in the text), up 0.18% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 2820 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2431 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 4625 lots; the secondary main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2385 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 7383 lots [3]. 2. Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies: CHS, the grain department of Louis Dreyfus, and EGT. - As of November 13, the sowing of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71% complete, higher than the 61% a week ago but lower than the 80% at the same time last year. - The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is predicted to reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture. - In November, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 4.26 million tons and a 101% increase compared to 2.339 million tons in November last year. - There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government has decided to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026. Although rapeseed meal is not included, it is necessary to pay attention to whether Russian rapeseed is included, which may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.136 million tons, an increase of 137,000 tons from the previous week, a 13.76% month - on - month increase; the contract volume was 5.264 million tons, a decrease of 607,000 tons from the previous week, a 10.34% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease [3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the expected demand from China has cooled down, causing US soybeans to face pressure at high levels. In the spot market, oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in crushing profits, so there may be a need for oil mills to support prices. With the expected cost support from state - reserved soybeans, the downward space for futures prices is limited. For rapeseed meal in the spot market, the rapeseed inventory remains at zero, and oil mills have shut down completely. The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons. There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government's decision to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026 may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. After the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited [3][4]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, long positions should be established in the far - month 2605 and 2607 contracts of bean meal, and a small number of new long positions should be entered for rapeseed meal. The resistance level for the M2601 contract is 3190, and the support level is 2685; for the M2605 contract, the resistance level is 3000, and the support level is 2549; for the RM2601 contract, the resistance level is 2620, and the support level is 2280; for the RM2605 contract, the resistance level is 2500, and the support level is 2270. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [4][5].
格林期货早盘提示：三油-20251126
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-11-26 02:20