Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Low - level rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level range - bound [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level range - bound [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various metals including precious metals, base metals, and new energy metals. It assesses their market conditions based on macro - economic data, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market condition: US data and Fed officials' statements support rate cuts, and the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is agreed upon, providing long - term support for gold. Silver has high elasticity and is favored by liquidity in 2025, with a significant increase of over 70% [1][2][3] - Logic: US economic data such as core PPI and retail sales support rate cuts; Fed officials advocate rate cuts; the Russia - Ukraine negotiation makes progress; in the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - Strategy: Long - term value allocation positions can be held, short - term trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the support level of domestic gold at 920 and silver at around 11500 [3] Copper - Market condition: The game between long and short is intense, with copper showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Overnight, Shanghai copper rose first and then fell [4][5] - Logic: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the TC of copper concentrates has declined. In October, China's imported copper concentrates increased year - on - year, but the production of electrolytic copper decreased. The global visible copper inventory is at a high level, with strong demand in the power and automotive sectors and weak demand in real estate and infrastructure [5] - Strategy: Do not chase high prices. Buy on dips during corrections. In the medium and long term, be bullish on copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper at [85500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - Market condition: Zinc is under pressure and weak due to weak demand in the off - season [7] - Logic: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has declined, and the profit of refined zinc enterprises is in deficit. In October, the production of refined zinc increased but was lower than expected. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [8] - Strategy: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and weak. In the medium and long term, supply increases while demand decreases. Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - Market condition: Aluminum prices face pressure during rebounds, and alumina shows a weak trend at a low level [10][11] - Logic: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production and are expected to continue to cut production next March. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots is stable, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The demand shows a structural differentiation. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to increase, and the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [12] - Strategy: Short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term. Pay attention to the change direction of the social inventory of aluminum ingots, with the main operating range at [21000 - 21600] [13] Nickel - Market condition: Nickel prices rebound, and stainless steel shows a slight rebound [14][15] - Logic: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and some smelters may cut production. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [16] - Strategy: Take profit on dips for nickel and stainless steel and then wait and see. Pay attention to the inventory changes of downstream stainless steel, with the main operating range of nickel at [116000 - 119000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market condition: The main contract LC2601 opened low and went high, with reduced positions and an increase of over 4% [18][19] - Logic: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, with upstream inventory further reduced and downstream inventory actively reduced to a reasonable range, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the terminal demand remains strong. However, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down [20] - Strategy: Pay attention to the pressure at the gap, and take profit on long positions in a timely manner within the range of [92800 - 97000] [21]
中辉有色观点-20251126
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-26 02:13