宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-26-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core view of weak operation due to the decline in geopolitical premium and the weakening of the crude oil market [1][5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Market Trends - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is volatile, the mid - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and weakening trend, with prices slightly falling, and are expected to remain weak on Wednesday [5]. Driving Logic - The macro - sentiment weakened because the US September non - farm payrolls data announced last weekend was significantly worse than expected [5]. - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of a loose supply [5]. - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is increasingly competing with geopolitical sentiment. Market concerns about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have led to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in the oil market [5].