煤焦：盘面弱势震荡，关注供应变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the high-level customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the domestic coal supply guarantee policy have impacted market sentiment. Additionally, the weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The market may remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price continued its weak trend and further declined during the night session. The position of the 01 contract is gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month price, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions experiencing corrections. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices have temporarily stabilized [3]. Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, remaining at a relatively high level. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons, or a decline of 5.16% [3]. - In terms of different countries, in October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September, mainly due to the port closure during the National Day holiday. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and there are recent market rumors that the port will test a daily customs clearance of 2,000 trucks, so the actual customs clearance volume needs to be monitored [3]. - In October, the import volume of Australian coking coal was 1.0469 million tons, with a significant month-on-month increase. The import volumes of Russian and Canadian coking coal in October both decreased slightly compared to September [3]. Domestic Production and Demand - The domestic clean coal production is generally stable. On the demand side, the profit of steel mills continues to shrink. Last week, the average daily pig iron output decreased to 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 4,800 tons compared to the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, pig iron output tends to decline, and the demand for raw materials is under pressure [3].