Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - MEG (Ethylene Glycol): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Sideways at the bottom, consider long positions on dips for 05 contract [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish rebound [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [5] Core Views - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a weakening oil price. Supply exceeds demand in the off - season, and there is pressure on the upside. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8] - LPG: The decline in the cost - end oil price weakens the LPG trend. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. Consider light - position short - selling [1] - L: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - PP: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Inventory is high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - PVC: The basis strengthens, and the price is in a bearish consolidation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline. Industries can hedge at high prices [1] - PX/PTA: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. Consider long positions on dips [3] - MEG: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - Methanol: The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions and long positions on dips for the 05 contract [3] - Urea: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - Natural Gas: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [5] - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is weak, and the supply - demand balance is loose. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [5] - Glass: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions in the short term and going short on rebounds in the long term [5] - Soda Ash: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Consider short positions on rebounds and short the 01 alkali - glass spread [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.51%, Brent down 1.47%, and SC up 0.40% [7] - Basic Logic: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but supply exceeds demand, and inventory is accumulating. Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a price drop [8] - Fundamentals: In December, Iraq's exports will decline by 12%. OPEC forecasts demand growth in 2025 and 2026. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may suppress prices. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [440 - 450] [10] LPG - Market Review: On November 25, the PG main contract closed at 4231 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [12] - Basic Logic: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is trending downward. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. The basis is high, and the price is over - estimated [13] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and there is room for price compression. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [14] L - Market Review: The L01 main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton, down 0.5% [16] - Basic Logic: The chemical sector rebounds, but supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient in the medium term [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions in the short term and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6850] [18] PP - Market Review: The PP01 main contract closed at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [20] - Basic Logic: The fundamental situation is weak due to the decline in coking coal prices. Inventory is high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - Market Review: The V01 main contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [23] - Basic Logic: The basis is repaired, and the short - term market returns to a weak fundamental situation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline [25] - Strategy Recommendation: Industries can hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for positive drivers. Pay attention to the range of V [4400 - 4550] [25] PTA - Market Review: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [26] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [27] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider long positions on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4610 - 4675] [28] MEG - Market Review: The EG01 contract closed at 3901 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [29] - Basic Logic: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3810 - 3885] [31] Methanol - Market Review: The main contract's position decreased slightly to 131.3 million lots, still at a high level in the past five years [34] - Basic Logic: The spot price stabilizes, and the basis strengthens slightly. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase [34] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions at low valuations. Consider long positions on dips for the 05 contract [34] Urea - Market Review: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Inventory is high, and there is a risk of price decline [38] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [40] Natural Gas - Market Review: On November 24, the NG main contract closed at 4.672 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.50% [43] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [44] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.344 - 4.603]. The demand side has support, but the supply side is sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] Asphalt - Market Review: On November 25, the BU main contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [47] - Basic Logic: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. There is room for price compression [47] - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [3000 - 3100] [48] Glass - Market Review: The FG01 main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [50] - Basic Logic: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak [52] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions in the short term and go short on rebounds in the long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [990 - 1040] [52] Soda Ash - Market Review: The SA01 main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [54] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Inventory is high [56] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for rebounds to go short in the long term and short the 01 alkali - glass spread. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [56]
中辉能化观点-20251126
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-26 02:27