格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is bearish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the coking coal and coke market remains bearish. The coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1086.0, a 0.96% decline compared to the opening of the day session. The main coke contract J2601 closed at 1643.0, a 0.64% increase compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1062.5, a 1.75% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the J2601 contract closed at 1593.5, a 3.01% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important Information - Local government special bonds are experiencing a peak in issuance for investment in government - funded funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan in special bonds on November 28, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. Coupled with the more than 60 billion yuan of relevant special bonds issued in many places before, the total scale of local government special bonds invested in government - funded funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [1] - Recently, the "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons/Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the classification and disposal of coal mines below 600,000 tons/year and guiding the closure and exit of coal mines with exhausted resources and those without safe production conditions [1] - As of November 21, the daily coal consumption of 493 power plant samples nationwide was 4.091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons. The total on - site coal inventory was 101.691 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.215 million tons, and the available days were 24.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 days [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Affected by the snowfall at the Ganqimaodu Port, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has declined. The sentiment has led to a slight rebound in the day - session market. However, the recent coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The overall sentiment remains bearish. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the main coking coal contract rebounds and meets resistance, it falls back. The lower support is at 1050 for the Jm2601 contract and 1150 for the Jm2605 contract. It is regarded as weakly volatile in the short term [1]