对二甲苯：短期不追高，PTA：单边震荡市，不追高，MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持，多MEG空PX

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Short-term, avoid chasing high prices. Suggest to close long positions, short PXN on rallies, and go long MEG while shorting PX. Consider monthly spread reverse arbitrage positions [1][7] - PTA: In a unilateral volatile market, avoid chasing high prices. Suggest to close long positions at high valuations [1][7] - MEG: The supply-demand pattern is improving. Suggest to reduce short positions and go long MEG while shorting PX. Close short and reverse arbitrage positions for profit [1][7] Core Viewpoints - Despite fluctuations in the energy system, Asian p-xylene prices remained flat on November 25. The downstream PTA market sentiment in China softened, with low trading volume. The PX production facility of Sinochem Quanzhou will be shut down for maintenance from November 25, 2026, to January 25, 2027 [3][4][5] - The arrivals at major ports of MEG from November 24 to November 30 are about 9.5 tons. A 500,000-ton/year MEG device in South China has been shut down for maintenance since November 25, with an estimated maintenance period of about two months [5] - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on November 25 were partially strong, with an average sales rate of about 140% by 3:30 pm [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 25, the PX price was stable. Two batches of January Asian spot were traded at $825. The end-of-day physical goods were negotiated at $824/839 for January and $826/830 for February. The PX valuation on November 25 was $826/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR Unv1/China was $825.67/ton, and the South Korea FOB was $804.67. The buying interest for February laycan rebounded in the morning but weakened in the afternoon. The downstream PTA market sentiment in China softened, and trading volume was low [3][4] - MEG: From November 24 to November 30, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 9.5 tons. A 500,000-ton/year MEG device in South China has been shut down for maintenance since November 25, with an estimated maintenance period of about two months [5] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on November 25 were partially strong, with an average sales rate of about 140% by 3:30 pm [6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: -1 - PTA trend intensity: -1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 Views and Suggestions - PX: Close long positions. Short PXN on rallies, and go long MEG while shorting PX. Consider monthly spread reverse arbitrage positions. The PX800,000-ton device of Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance. The PXN has reached $260/ton, and the speculation factors in the market have been gradually digested. After the overvaluation of the domestic PX, the arbitrage positions of buying overseas and shorting domestic increase. The short-term unilateral price upward momentum weakens [7] - PTA: Close long positions at high valuations. The PTA operating rate continued to decline to 72% (-3.7%). The 2.5 million-ton device of Honggang stopped and will restart next week; the 2.2 million-ton device of Yisheng extended the maintenance time, with a weekly output of about 1.41 million tons. The polyester device operates at 91.3%, with a rigid demand for PTA of 1.33 million tons. Overall, it maintains a tight balance pattern, but the recent continuous surge in the warehouse receipt volume shows a pattern of inventory accumulation, indicating that the PTA output is underestimated or the polyester operating rate is overestimated. With a weak supply-demand pattern, the upward momentum is limited [7] - MEG: At a low price, there is an expectation of supply contraction, and the supply-demand balance sheet improves. Close short and reverse arbitrage positions for profit. Hedge by going long MEG and shorting PX. In terms of the operating rate, the operation of multiple devices has decreased. The 800,000-ton load of CNOOC Shell decreased (due to profit issues), and the loads of Zhongke Refining & Chemical, Hainan Refining & Chemical, Shaanxi Yulin Chemical decreased, and the 400,000-ton device of Hongsifang temporarily stopped. The 500,000-ton device of Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance, and the 1 million-ton device of Shenghong Refining & Chemical will be under maintenance in early December. The coal-based device has gradually decreased from the previous high of 83% to 65%. The weekly supply of domestic ethylene glycol is about 405,000 tons. The operating rate of the polyester device remains around 91.3%, with a rigid demand for ethylene glycol of 520,000 tons. Considering that the import remains at about 100,000 tons and the demand in other fields is about 40,000 - 50,000 tons, the inventory structure of ethylene glycol will reverse. The short allocation value decreases [7][8]