宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年11月26日）-20251126

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and oil market is in a state of consolidation, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. The short - term market will continue to play around Sino - US trade progress and inventory changes, with soybean and oil futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "weak and volatile". The reference view is also "weak and volatile" [5][6]. - Core Logic: The soybean market is in a consolidation phase with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. US soybean futures prices are oscillating around 1100 cents, and the market is focusing on the details of a possible 12 million - ton soybean purchase agreement between China and the US. The domestic spot market has significant pressure, with soybean meal inventory rising to 1.145 million tons and contract volume dropping by 10.31%, indicating weak demand. Caught between high costs and weak reality, oil mills are accumulating inventory, and feed enterprises mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "strong and volatile". The reference view is also "strong and volatile" [6][7]. - Core Logic: The palm oil market is showing a significant differentiation pattern. The Malaysian palm oil market has declined for four consecutive days, mainly due to a 16.4% year - on - year decline in Malaysia's exports from November 1 - 25, which has intensified market concerns about the weakening supply - demand situation. Domestic palm oil inventory has increased by 35,100 tons to 591,600 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Recently, the trend of palm oil is closely linked to the international oil and fat sector. After a continuous decline, the palm oil market may fluctuate strongly due to the rebound of US soybean oil futures prices [7]. 3.3. Soybean Oil (Y) - Viewpoints: Short - term and medium - term views are "volatile", and the intraday view is "strong and volatile". The reference view is "strong and volatile" [6]. - Core Logic: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].