尿素早评20251126：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251126

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The current bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. Urea's rebound from the bottom is not significant, and its valuation remains relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, so low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. In the long - term, it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On November 25, UR01 closed at 1630 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1701 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; UR09 closed at 1716 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.35% [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices: In Shandong, it was 1630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%; in Shanxi, 1500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.66%; in Henan, 1640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%. The price in Northeast China increased by 20 yuan or 1.18% to 1720 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream Costs: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 30 yuan or 1.00% to 3030 yuan/ton, and in Henan, it increased by 30 yuan or 1.18% to 2580 yuan/ton. The melamine price in Shandong increased by 23 yuan or 0.45% to 5190 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1639 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1642 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1627 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1630 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1633 yuan/ton [1]. c. Trading Strategy In the long - term, pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1].