20251126申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251126

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - The supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious overall, and it may fluctuate within a range [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate [2] - Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic copper futures' previous day's closing price was 86,540 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,833 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 155,750 tons, and the daily change was 725 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow [2] - Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructural investment's cumulative growth rate is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic zinc futures' previous day's closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,000 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 120.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 47,425 tons, and the daily change was 100 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,425 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,801 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 545,950 tons, and the daily change was - 2,050 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 115,940 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 4,080 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 14,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 190.51 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,482 tons, and the daily change was - 468 tons [2] - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,005 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,982 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 35.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 265,275 tons, and the daily change was 2,425 tons [2] - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 294,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 37,695 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 135.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,085 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]