“十五五”期间赛道机遇的展望（更正）

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [1] Core Insights - The year 2026 marks the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" implementation, characterized by frequent mergers and acquisitions among state-owned enterprises and stronger stock performance of private enterprises compared to state-owned ones [4][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has a unique aspect with the 2027 centenary of the military, potentially leading to order front-loading and structural changes [4][24] - The overall industry is returning to a value investment focus, prioritizing orders and performance, with upstream sectors expected to outperform downstream [4][23] Summary by Sections Section 1: Characteristics of the First Year of the Industry Cycle and "14th Five-Year Plan" Outlook - The first year of the five-year plan typically sees strong industry development certainty but limited stock price surprises due to prior expectations [8] - Historical data shows significant fluctuations in index performance, with the first year often experiencing a decline in EPS growth [7][9] Section 2: Outlook for Subsequent Supply and Demand - Demand is expected to show marginal improvement, while supply-side capacity is significantly increasing, indicating potential marginal shocks in certain industry segments [22] - The industry is expected to experience a recovery in sectors that underperformed during the latter half of the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as aerospace and aviation engine sectors [4][24] Section 3: Key Tracks and Structural Focus - Recommended focus areas include intelligent grouping, aerospace industry (including both aviation and commercial aerospace), and carrier-based aircraft [4][23] - Structural focus should be on aviation engines and the demand expansion and industrialization of PEEK materials [4][35]