铜：LME现货走强，驱动价格

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the copper market, including price movements, macro - economic and industry news, and supply - demand data. The current trend strength of copper is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Price and Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,600 with a daily increase of 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 86350 with a decrease of 0.29%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,833 with a daily increase of 0.47%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 177,123, a decrease of 25,872 from the previous day, and the position was 524,645, an increase of 9,978. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 23,187, an increase of 11,411, and the position was 329,000, an increase of 1,449 [1]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 40,965, a decrease of 2,851 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 156,575, an increase of 825. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 3.59%, an increase of 0.05% [1]. - Spreads: The LME copper premium was 24.88, an increase of 23.82 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 78,500, an increase of 100. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 80, a decrease of 5 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Macro: US economic data shows an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. In September, PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, core PPI growth was 0.1% lower than expected. Private sector employment decreased by an average of 13,500 per week in the past four weeks, and September retail sales increased by 0.2% month - on - month, far lower than expected [1]. - Industry: In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2 million and 40 thousand tons, a decrease of more than 10% month - on - month. Free Port plans to restart Grasberg mine production before July, and expects next year's copper and gold production to be the same as this year. China's October 2025 imports of copper ore and concentrates decreased by 5.24% month - on - month but increased by 6.08% year - on - year. The global refined copper market had a deficit of 51,000 tons in September, compared with a surplus of 41,000 tons in August [1][3].