2026年高速公路行业投资策略报告：基本面经营稳健，政策端有潜在利好预期-20251126

Core Insights - The highway industry is entering a mature phase with stable operational performance and potential policy benefits expected in the future. The growth of operational mileage is slowing down, and the industry is characterized by heavy assets, long cycles, and stable returns. The profitability of highway companies is expected to recover in 2025, with traffic volume anticipated to grow steadily in 2026 due to resilient macroeconomic growth [2][3]. Investment Highlights - Historical performance of listed highway companies has been stable, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% in revenue from 2015 to 2024. In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue decreased by 4.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders showed a CAGR of 5.9% during the same period, with a growth rate of 3.7% in 2025 [3][11]. - Passenger and freight turnover is expected to maintain stable growth. From January to October 2025, passenger turnover reached 4,278 billion person-kilometers, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year. Freight turnover, closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, reached 65,484.48 billion ton-kilometers, growing by 3.71% year-on-year [3][30]. - The construction costs of highways are rising, and the revenue-expenditure gap is widening, leading to increased demands for higher toll rates and extended operating periods. As of 2021, the revenue-expenditure gap for repayable and operational highways was approximately 250 billion and 350 billion respectively [4][41]. - The highway sector has shown a cumulative increase of about 35% from 2014 to 2024, outperforming the broader market (CSI 300 index), which rose by 11% during the same period. The sector's dividend yield remains attractive, especially in a declining interest rate environment [7][50][52]. Traffic Volume and Policy Optimization - The growth rate of highway mileage has slowed, with a CAGR of 4.8% from 2016 to 2024. By the end of 2024, the total highway mileage in China reached 190,700 kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [22][23]. - The optimization of toll standards and operating periods is anticipated. Recent adjustments in toll rates have been observed in various regions, with expectations for these changes to spread to other areas over time [41][43]. - Mergers and acquisitions present potential new opportunities in the highway sector, as state-owned enterprises are encouraged to consolidate assets, which could enhance operational efficiency and performance [2][49]. Long-term Investment Value - The highway sector is expected to provide stable long-term investment returns, with a high dividend payout ratio compared to other high-dividend sectors. The sector's dividend yield has consistently exceeded that of 10-year and 30-year government bonds since 2020 [52][53]. - The overall financial costs for highway companies have been decreasing, benefiting from lower market interest rates, which enhances profitability [52][57].