新能源及有色金属日报：铜价冲高之际，下游采购有所放缓-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and geopolitical factors have led to copper price fluctuations. However, lower prices have boosted downstream purchasing, and short hedging positions have been unwound, providing support at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level. Buying hedges can be made at this level, and selling hedges can be made above 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 86,080 yuan/ton and closed at 86,600 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 86,350 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 86,330 to 86,890 yuan/ton. After the copper price rose above 86,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing slowed. It is expected that today's spot trading will remain stalemated [2]. Important Information Summaries - Inflation Data: In September, US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month, with a slowdown and lower - than - expected growth [3]. - Fiscal Data: In October, the US federal government budget deficit reached $284 billion due to the government "shutdown". The release of the 2026 fiscal year's first - month budget results was postponed [3]. - Fed Information: The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. A Fed official called for significant interest rate cuts [3]. - Mine - end News: DPM Metals faces pressure to abandon its $600 million Loma Larga gold - copper project in Ecuador. Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru has produced 1 million tons of copper since 2022, with an expected output of 310,000 - 340,000 tons in 2025 [4]. - Smelting and Import: The global copper processing pricing mechanism is changing. The long - standing annual benchmark pricing system may be adjusted, with a trend towards more bilateral agreements and price - range settings [5]. - Consumption: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points to 70.07%, and is expected to reach 72.74% next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 1.32 percentage points to 65.68% and is expected to continue rising [6]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 156,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 2,851 tons to 40,965 tons. On November 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 180,600 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - Spot Premium: SMM 1 copper premium was 80 yuan/ton, down from 85 yuan/ton the previous day [26]. - Inventory: LME inventory was 156,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 110,603 tons, and COMEX inventory was 371,388 tons [28]. - Warehouse Receipts: SHFE warehouse receipts were 40,965 tons, down from 43,816 tons the previous day [28]. - Arbitrage and Import Profit: The import profit was - 1,027 yuan, and the copper - to - aluminum and copper - to - zinc arbitrage ratios also changed [29].