甲醇日报：继续关注伊朗装置冬检进展-20251126

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should continue to monitor the progress of winter inspections of Iranian methanol plants. Although some Iranian plants have shut down, the shipping volume in November exceeded 1 million tons, so there is still significant inventory pressure at ports in December, and the current situation remains weak [3]. - In the domestic market, there are both new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Among traditional downstream sectors, acetic acid and formaldehyde have low operating rates, while only MTBE has a relatively high operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences (such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [6][27][28]. 3.3 Methanol Operation and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), domestic factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) is presented through charts [6][35][36]. 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts showing regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280, East China and Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang and Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][47]. 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][55]. 3.6 Market News and Key Data Domestic Market - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 583 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of methanol in different domestic regions have different changes, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The inventory and pending order volumes of domestic factories also show different trends, with inventory decreasing and pending orders increasing [1]. Port Market - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2060 yuan/ton (+7 yuan), and CFR China is 238 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars). Port inventory has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO has increased slightly [2]. Regional Price Differences - There are various changes in regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280 increasing by 15 yuan/ton, and the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 increasing by 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.7 Market Analysis - At ports, the market is waiting for further progress of winter inspections of Iranian plants. Although some plants have shut down, the high shipping volume in November leads to high inventory pressure in December. In the domestic market, there are new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and traditional downstream sectors have different operating rates [3]. 3.8 Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [4]. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [4].