新能源及有色金属日报：消费端分歧较大，碳酸锂盘面或维持高位震荡-20251126

Group 1: Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 91,000 yuan/ton and closed at 95,400 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 511,279 lots, and the open interest was 343,199 lots, down from 365,078 lots the previous day. The current basis is 810 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 26,615 lots, a change of 105 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,800 - 94,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 88,300 - 91,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,120 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price is in the range of 90,000 - 92,000 yuan, downstream material factories increase their procurement, and market transactions become more active. As the futures price rises to around 95,000 yuan, downstream material factories reduce their price - fixing behavior. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, mainly focusing on the coefficient [1]. Group 2: New Energy Policy - The Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in 2026. The bidding does not distinguish between project types. The bidders are new energy projects that were put into operation (fully grid - connected) between June 1, 2025 (inclusive) and December 31, 2026 (inclusive), have not been included in the mechanism electricity price implementation scope, and voluntarily participate [2]. - The total scale of the bidding electricity is 1.2 billion kWh in 2026. The upper limit of the bidding price for wind and photovoltaic is 0.3598 yuan/kWh. The upper limit of the declared electricity volume for a single project does not exceed the estimated annual on - grid electricity volume, which is determined by multiplying the installed capacity by the annual average power generation utilization hours and deducting the power consumption of the power plant. The annual average power generation utilization hours for photovoltaic power generation in Beijing is 1,450 hours, and for wind power is 2,000 hours, with a power plant power consumption rate of 3%. The implementation period for the selected projects' mechanism electricity price is 12 years [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Currently, there are significant differences in the consumer end. There are large differences in the overall production scheduling expectations after the decline in the power end in the first - quarter off - season of 2026 and the supplement of energy storage. In the short term, it cannot be falsified, and the futures market may maintain high - level volatile operation [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and the resumption of production at the mine end, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. For inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading, there are no specific strategies. For options, sell out - of - the - money options on both sides [3].