新能源及有色金属日报：铝价震荡等待下一波上涨驱动力-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - During the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a fluctuating trend after a decline. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has slightly decreased, and the spot discount has slightly fallen. The social inventory rarely shows a downward trend on Monday, and the future destocking trend is worth looking forward to. The absolute inventory value remains low, which is unlikely to have a negative impact on the price. There is optimism about future consumption. Although there are differences in the US interest - rate cut policy, the large cycle of interest - rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not been reflected yet. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected destocking of social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized [6]. - In the spot market of alumina, there are sporadic transactions, and the trading activity has declined compared with the previous period. There are few bullish factors in the fundamental aspect. The bauxite price is firm. Domestic mines are facing short - term environmental protection pressure, while the supply of imported mines is starting to increase, and the sentiment towards the price is starting to weaken. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without triggering large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. It is expected that the procurement demand will decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the price of bauxite has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, so the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,330 yuan/ton, and the change of the spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is - 20 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The change of the aluminum spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is 5 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,415 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,525 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 157,390 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 271,763 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots, as counted by SMM, was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, with a change of - 2,225 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,736 yuan/ton, closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change amplitude of - 0.15%. The highest price reached 2,741 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,722 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 165,823 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 390,129 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 25, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution; neutral on alumina; bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [8]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum [8].