农产品日报：糖价止跌企稳，郑棉延续反弹-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton prices are limited, and a sideways trading pattern is expected. In the long - term, cotton prices are optimistic after the seasonal pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] - The short - term fundamental drivers of Zhengzhou sugar prices are still downward, but the decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend next year may not be optimistic [5] - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8] Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton yesterday, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,599 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. As of November 23, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The November USDA report was bearish for the market. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, driving the Zhengzhou cotton futures price to rebound. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, the expected yield in Xinjiang has risen again, the downstream peak season is not obvious, and the demand support is insufficient. But the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is okay, so the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. Consider a sideways trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton in the short - term. In the long - term, be optimistic about cotton prices after the seasonal pressure and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5387 yuan/ton yesterday, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season, with 15.177 million tons of sugarcane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced, with an average sugar yield of 7.64% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's supply remained strong in the second half of October, strengthening the oversupply expectation. Indian sugar mills have started crushing, and the sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 2025/26 season. The long - term oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, but the short - term decline space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar: The recently announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and Guangxi sugar mills are starting to crush, so the short - term supply pressure is high, driving the Zhengzhou sugar price to a new low [4] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support prices at the beginning of the season. The short - term decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. The long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and new lows may appear [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5212 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5465 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Some pulp prices in the imported wood pulp spot market showed a weakening trend [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply pattern remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was emerging. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the downstream paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8]