新能源及有色金属日报：市场观望情绪相对浓重，铅价震荡偏弱-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees stay at a low level. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead smelting are both low, resulting in limited supply pressure. On the consumption side, it remains stable without a strong recovery signal. It is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate, roughly in the range of 17,000 - 17,700 RMB/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 0.00 RMB/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,075 RMB/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 9,950 RMB/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,075 RMB/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,300 RMB/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 RMB/ton and closed at 17,045 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,496 lots, an increase of 2,076 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest for the whole trading day was 52,466 lots, a decrease of 422 lots from the previous trading day. During the day, the price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 17,130 RMB/ton and a minimum of 17,010 RMB/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,065 RMB/ton and closed at 17,055 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. As reported by SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 75 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly sold through long - term contracts, with few spot quotes. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 80 - 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. As the lead price declined, the discount in traders' quotes gradually narrowed, and large - discount goods were traded. Lead smelters in Hunan generally held firm on prices. Branded lead was quoted at a premium of 50 RMB/ton to the SMM 1 lead, with some transactions from rigid - demand buyers. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. Traders in Yunnan quoted at a discount of 250 - 200 RMB/ton to the average SMM 1 lead price for ex - factory sales. With the weak and fluctuating lead price, downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and their willingness to stock up at low prices was poor. The market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and overall spot trading was light [2] Inventory - On November 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 25, the LME lead inventory was 264,575 tons, an increase of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy Overall Strategy - The overall strategy for the lead market is "Neutral" due to the weak supply - demand situation [4] Option Strategy - The option strategy recommended is to sell a wide strangle [5]