2026年铜行业展望：流动性叠加供需，重视有色的资源属性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" [1] Core Views - The copper mining output interference rate is increasing, leading to a long-term supply shortage due to insufficient exploration spending. The global copper supply is expected to decrease in the coming years, with significant reductions in output from major projects like Grasberg, Kakula, and Batu Hijau [2][4] - Demand for copper is structurally improving due to sustained investments in AI and renewable energy. Traditional demand remains stable, while new demand from AI and energy revolutions is expected to grow significantly, increasing its share of overall demand from 16% in 2023 to 22% by 2030 [2][37] - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive copper prices higher, with projections of LME copper prices reaching $13,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices exceeding ¥100,000 per ton in 2026 [2][30] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global copper mining supply is expected to decline, with a projected output of 2.35 million tons in 2025, down 13.4 million tons from 2024. Recovery in production from major mines is anticipated in 2026-2027, contributing to a gradual increase in supply [23][36] - The copper supply is highly concentrated, with the top 16 copper producers accounting for 58.87% of global output. Any production halts at these major mines could significantly impact supply [14][30] - The interference rate in copper mining supply is high, with multiple incidents in 2025 leading to production downgrades. This trend is expected to continue, affecting the recovery of production in the coming years [16][22] Price Trends - Copper prices have shown an overall upward trend since 2025, influenced by various factors including supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. The highest price reached was ¥88,700 per ton in Q4 2025 [8][24] - The TC price for copper concentrate has been declining, reaching a historical low of $42.21 per ton by mid-November 2025, which has put pressure on the smelting sector [26][30] New Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is being driven by the growth of AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sectors. The copper consumption in electric vehicles is 2-3 times higher than in traditional vehicles, and significant copper is required for solar and wind energy installations [44][45] - AI data centers are expected to significantly increase copper demand due to their high power requirements and the need for extensive wiring and cooling systems [49][53] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are a key focus, with potential rate cuts expected to influence copper prices positively. The market is currently assessing the timing and impact of these cuts on economic conditions [56][62] - Liquidity tightening has been affecting copper prices, but there are expectations for relief in December 2025 as the Fed may halt its balance sheet reduction [62][63]