原油日报：关注俄乌和谈前景-20251126

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The oil market is still focused on the prospects of Russia-Ukraine peace talks. After the initial 28 - point plan was revised to 19 points through consultations between the US and Ukraine, the acceptance of the new 19 - point plan by Russia needs to be monitored. Although the start of peace talks has accelerated the pace of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the future prospects remain highly uncertain and continuous attention to relevant progress is required [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 89 cents to settle at $57.95 per barrel, a decline of 1.51%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 89 cents to settle at $62.48 per barrel, a decline of 1.4%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.98%, at 443 yuan per barrel [1]. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said that due to a drone attack, oil loading at the Black Sea terminal was temporarily suspended [1]. - US President Trump said that after further improvement by both sides, the original 28 - point peace plan drafted by the US has only a few remaining differences, and the Russia - Ukraine situation may ease [1]. - On November 24 local time, the governor of Oregon declared a state of emergency to ensure sufficient fuel supply during the closure of the Olympic Pipeline, which supplies over 90% of the state's fuel, due to a leak. The pipeline is operated by BP and has been closed for a week. BP is looking for the leak source [1]. - Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, said that Western sanctions on Russia would bring Western economies closer to a crisis. Western consumers are already paying high prices for energy, and continued sanctions will bring another economic crisis to Western countries [1]. - The UK, the EU, and the US have strengthened sanctions on Moscow over the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The latest US measures target Rosneft and Lukoil, and buyers must stop trading with these two companies by November 21 [1]. - Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov said on the 25th that there is a possibility of Russia - US contact on the peace plan at some point. Russia remains open to negotiations, and is waiting for the US to share its new plan to resolve the Ukraine issue [1]. Investment Logic - The oil market is focused on the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The 28 - point plan has become 19 points, and the acceptance by Russia is key. The future of the peace talks is uncertain and needs continuous monitoring [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a bearish configuration in the medium term, and shorting the calendar spread is recommended [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the signing of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro - black swan events. Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [4].