燃料油日报：低硫燃料油市场结构再度转弱-20251126

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The mid-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually materializing. If the Russia-Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, and lower oil prices will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil [2] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with declining crack spreads and monthly spreads. The market supply remains relatively abundant. The supply from the Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, some units of the Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low-sulfur crude oil is also recovering. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and there is still support at the lower end of the market [2] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner, and the lower support for valuation mainly comes from the flexible demand at the refinery end. In addition, the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.36% during the day session, at 2,491 yuan/ton; the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.31% during the day session, at 3,015 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]