化工日报：PTA基差上涨，价格震荡收跌-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and moderately bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel, with a bearish fundamental drive due to increased oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia since Q3. However, market differentiation caused by sanctions persists, and geopolitical and macro - events may impact sentiment [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN has widened recently. With a loose MX supply, PX load can be maintained at a high level. PXN is supported by polyester production but has limited upside due to high PX load and capacity expansion [1]. - For TA, the spot basis and processing fees have increased. Recent concentrated maintenance and improved export demand have led to better supply - demand conditions. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve as the capacity expansion cycle ends [2]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month). Domestic sales orders have improved since late October, and inventory has decreased. The short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. - In the PF market, the production profit has increased, and inventory has decreased. The price is consolidating, but it is difficult to raise prices, and the processing fee has slightly compressed [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee has decreased slightly. The market is in a demand off - season and a pre - Spring Festival inventory gap, with high social inventory and weak demand, so the processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The upside of the 01 contract may be limited, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no recommendations for cross - variety and cross - period trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 43 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is $263 per ton (up $1.25 per ton month - on - month). The PTA spot processing fee is 201 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 277 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1][2]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - No specific data is provided in the given content. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level, and overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. The concentrated PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand conditions [1][2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - No specific data is provided in the given content. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month), and the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 164 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level [2]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 440 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and factory inventory remains unchanged. The processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3].