航运日报：马士基12月第二周报价环比下调，12月合约交割结算价格估值下修-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The quotes of Maersk in the second week of December decreased compared to the previous week, and the estimated value of the December contract settlement price was revised downwards [1]. - The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference, and the settlement time of the February contract has been determined. The settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the price - holding period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at par with the December contract valuation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be price increases announced at the end of November and mid - December [4]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the reopening of the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal reopens, it will increase the effective supply of shipping capacity and further suppress freight rates [5]. - The strategy suggests that the December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Price - As of November 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures was 77,333.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 64,306.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1453.50, 1126.40, 1338.00, 1464.00, 1108.00, and 1650.00 respectively [5]. 3.2 Spot Price - On November 21, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1367 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West Coast route) price was 1645 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East Coast) price was 2384 US dollars/FEU. On November 24, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West Coast) was 1107.85 points [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.9184 million TEU. Among them, 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [6]. - In November, the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks was 343,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 48/49 were 336,200/351,300 TEU respectively. In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 303,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50/51/52/53 were 305,800/278,000/302,600/329,100 TEU respectively. In January, the monthly average weekly capacity was 310,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 2/3/4/5 were 346,900/293,400/299,000/301,300 TEU respectively. There was 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - Maersk's spokesperson said that the Suez Canal Authority's previous statement about resuming navigation in December was false, and the company has not determined when it will resume partial voyages through the Suez Canal [3]. - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal reopening in 2026 is relatively high. Hapag - Lloyd said that if the Suez Canal resumes navigation, it will probably be after the Spring Festival in 2026 [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No relevant information provided in the content that can be specifically summarized for this part.