液化石油气日报：外盘保持坚挺，市场短期矛盾有限-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] Core View - The external market remains firm, and the short - term contradictions in the market are limited. The high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have shown a marginal tightening trend, but the sustainability is limited. The downstream chemical demand is suppressed by cost increases, and the supply in the Middle East and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia are expected to increase. In the medium term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Analysis - On November 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4330 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4010 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market, 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 569 dollars/ton and 559 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4437 yuan/ton for propane (down 1 yuan/ton) and 4359 yuan/ton for butane (down 1 yuan/ton). In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 561 dollars/ton and 551 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4374 yuan/ton for propane (down 2 yuan/ton) and 4296 yuan/ton for butane (down 2 yuan/ton) [1] - The external market continues to fluctuate strongly, and the high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have tightened marginally, but the sustainability is limited due to the suppression of downstream chemical demand by cost increases. The supply in the Middle East may increase after the refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern of LPG has not changed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]