聚烯烃日报：油价大幅下跌，成本端支撑转弱-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost - side support. For PE, there is supply pressure due to the release of new production capacity and the approaching of the demand off - season, while for PP, the supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term, and the cost - side support shows different trends for different production methods [1][2] - The recommended strategies are to cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, maintain a neutral stance on PP, conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton (- 31), PP main contract at 6317 yuan/ton (- 55), LL North China spot at 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL East China spot at 6900 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot at 6360 yuan/ton (- 20), LL North China basis at 38 yuan/ton (+ 31), LL East China basis at 138 yuan/ton (+ 31), PP East China basis at 43 yuan/ton (+ 35) [1] - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 82.7% (- 0.4%), PP operating rate was 78.3% (- 1.3%) [1] - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 296.4 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 463.6 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PDH - based PP production profit was - 414.4 yuan/ton (- 21.4) [1] - Imports and exports: LL import profit was - 11.1 yuan/ton (+ 10.3), PP import profit was - 231.8 yuan/ton (- 10.1), PP export profit was 2.8 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 49.9% (- 0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.9% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.2% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply - side device maintenance has increased slightly, but new production capacity is being released, and demand is entering the off - season. Cost - side support from oil - based production has weakened due to the decline in oil prices [2] - PP: The supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term. Although maintenance devices have increased, it has limited impact on the oversupply situation. Demand is also weakening, and the cost - side support for oil - based production has weakened while that for PDH has strengthened [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, neutral on PP [3] - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [3] - Cross - variety: None [3]