沪铅弱势难改

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint The lead market remains weak. Although there is a slight de - stocking in domestic inventory in the short term, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the boost from the consumption peak season is limited, social inventory may end the de - stocking trend and start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead and changes in domestic inventory in the later stage [6]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees: In October 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 98,342 tons in physical quantity, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand soared in winter, intensifying the tight supply situation. The domestic monthly processing fee in November was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the import monthly processing fee was - 150 - - 100 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 10 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - Supply: In October, the national electrolytic lead production decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.66%; the secondary lead production increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 9.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.86%. The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces last week was 67.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. An eastern region smelter will enter regular maintenance this week, with a relatively limited impact on the electrolytic lead production line. The pressure on the raw material side is prominent, and the operating rate of primary lead will not change much in the later stage. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 50.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. SMM expects the operating rate of secondary lead to continue to increase this week. Recently, the domestic - foreign price ratio has risen, and lead imports have a small profit [3]. - Consumption: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises remained stable last week. The terminal consumption of the lead - acid battery market has not changed significantly recently. The electric bicycle battery market will enter the traditional off - season, and the demand for automobile batteries has recovered but with limited boost. High battery inventory means that battery enterprises have insufficient motivation to increase production significantly in the short term. Whether the seasonal recovery of automobile battery consumption in winter can drive overall inventory reduction remains to be observed. Some enterprises have actively reduced production in November, and major enterprises will maintain the production - based - on - sales model before new orders recover. The spot market atmosphere has declined, lead prices have continued to be weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching except for some with rigid demand, resulting in a decline in spot transactions [4][5]. - Spot: As of the week of November 21, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated. The lead spot basis was at a premium of 65 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot remained at a discount, with a discount of - 22.41 US dollars at the end of last week [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 40,375 tons to 222,900 tons, and the LME inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks at a high level; the SHFE lead weekly inventory decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,900 tons. As of November 17, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 35,300 tons, with a slight decline but still at an absolute low level in the past four years [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply and demand are relatively loose, with high LME lead inventory and a discounted spot price. The import of lead concentrate decreased significantly in October, and the demand for winter - stored lead concentrate in China is high, intensifying the expectation of tight lead concentrate supply. The production of primary lead is restricted by raw materials, and the operating rate will not change much. The smelting profit of secondary lead enterprises has improved, and the supply of raw materials has improved, but there is still uncertainty in environmental protection disturbances in winter. The domestic - foreign price ratio of lead ingots has risen, and domestic imports have a small profit. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, and the terminal consumption of automobile batteries is not strong. Lead prices are weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. In the short term, lead supply recovery is less than expected, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing. However, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the consumption peak season has limited boost, social inventory may start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue [6].