航运衍生品数据日报-20251126

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: November 26, 2025 [5] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [5] Group 2: Freight Index Current and Previous Values - Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) current value: 1394, previous value: 1451, change: -3.98% [5] - China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) current value: 1123, previous value: 1094, change: 2.63% [5] - SCFI - West Coast of the United States current value: 1645, previous value: 1823, change: -9.76% [5] - SCFIS - West Coast of the United States current value: 1107, previous value: 1238, change: -10.58% [5] - SCFI - East Coast of the United States current value: 2384, previous value: 2600, change: -8.31% [5] - SCFI - Northwest Europe current value: 1367, previous value: 1417, change: -3.53% [5] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe current value: 1357, previous value: 1504, change: -9.77% [5] - SCFI - Mediterranean current value: 2055, previous value: 2029, change: 1.28% [5] Contract Information - Contract EC2506 current value: 1338.0, previous value: 1358.2, change: -1.49% [5] - Contract EC2608 current value: 1464.0, previous value: 1488.1, change: -1.62% [5] - Contract EC2610 current value: 1108.0, previous value: 1110.0, change: -0.18% [5] - Contract EC2512 current value: 1650.0, previous value: 1779.7, change: -7.29% [5] - Contract EC2602 current value: 1453.5, previous value: 1568.6, change: -7.34% [5] - Contract EC2604 current value: 1126.4, previous value: 1142.1, change: -1.37% [5] Position and Spread - EC2606 position current value: 1629, previous value: 1534, change: 95 [5] - EC2608 position current value: 1399, previous value: 1325, change: 74 [5] - EC2610 position current value: 2556, previous value: 2597, change: -41 [5] - EC2512 position current value: 6454, previous value: 6862, change: -408 [5] - EC2602 position current value: 48279, previous value: 43333, change: 4946 [5] - EC2604 position current value: 17016, previous value: 16096, change: 920 [5] - 12 - 02 spread current value: 196.5, previous value: 211.1, change: -14.6 [5] - 12 - 04 spread current value: 523.6, previous value: 637.6, change: -114.0 [5] - 02 - 04 spread current value: 327.1, previous value: 426.5, change: -99.4 [5] Group 3: Market News - The last trading Monday in February 2026 for container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 is February 9 [6] - Iran carried out a maritime attack on a suspicious target approaching Israel in the Gulf of Oman [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal directly instead of going around the Cape of Good Hope as scheduled [6] Group 4: EC Market Analysis Market Summary - The market is in a downward trend, mainly due to some airlines reducing December prices [7] Spot Prices - In early December, MSK quoted 2500, HPL quoted 2350, 00CL quoted 2300, CMA quoted 3550, EM3 quoted 3100, ONE quoted 2450, and MSC quoted 2450 [7] Market Logic - December freight rate implementation: If leading shipping companies like Maersk maintain quotes between 2400 - 2600 dollars/FEU and there is no large - scale overbooking, the EC near - month contract will continue to be under pressure [7] - January price increase letter implementation: Shipping companies plan to raise prices again in January, but if cargo volume remains weak or shipping company quotes diverge more, the price increase will be harder to implement, limiting the upside of the 02 contract [7] - Seasonal cargo volume changes: December下旬 to January上旬 is the traditional peak season. If there is overbooking, it may briefly boost freight rates [7] Outlook - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, focusing on December freight rate implementation and January price increase letter effectiveness [7] - If December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quote, the EC2602 contract may test the 1500 - 1700 point range; if price support is successful, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [7] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [8]