碳酸锂日评：逢高沽空-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 25th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards, with trading volume at 511,279 lots (+56,667) and open interest at 343,199 lots (-21,879). The spot market trading picked up, and the basis changed from positive to negative. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. On the supply side, the lithium carbonate output increased last week, with both types of production rising. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In November, the production of lithium carbonate increased, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased. The output of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C shipments weakened; the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory declined. Both smelters and downstream industries reduced inventory, while others remained stable. Currently, both supply and demand are strong. There are repeated reports of the resumption of production in Jiangxi lithium mines, and the weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high. Downstream market sentiment remains cautious, but the spot market trading has picked up. The power demand is weakening, and the exchange has taken measures to cool down the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Contract Closing Prices: The closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract on November 25, 2025, were 95,340.00, 95,400.00, 95,640.00, and 95,640.00 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 511,279 lots (+56,667), and the open interest was 343,199 lots (-21,879) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was 26,615 tons (+105) [1]. - Spreads: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 60.00 (+220.00) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Price Data - Lithium Ore: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067.00 dollars/ton (-4.00), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained stable [1]. - Lithium Compounds: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) decreased by 100.00 yuan/ton to 92,050.00 and 89,650.00 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also decreased by 100.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Other Materials: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) increased by 2,500.00 yuan/ton to 160,500.00 yuan/ton. The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other materials also had different degrees of changes [1]. 3.3 Industry News - Pioneer Lithium, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, announced that as the global economy shows initial signs of stabilization after a long - term slump, the company has initiated internal planning to restart the on - site operations of its Root Lake lithium mine project in Ontario, Canada. The company said it saved capital during the low - price cycle while retaining the option to advance its highest - quality assets when market conditions improve. With the recovery of market sentiment, Pioneer is now evaluating the plan to re - start the Root Lake geophysical exploration program [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The lithium carbonate output increased last week, with both types of production rising. The production of lithium carbonate increased in November, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased [1]. - Downstream Demand: The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The output of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C shipments weakened; the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory declined. Both smelters and downstream industries reduced inventory, while others remained stable [1]. 3.6 Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].