蛋白数据日报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans and South American weather, with expected support for the US market and a sideways movement for the domestic market. - Without significant weather issues, the market is expected to start trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - 43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis: On November 25th, the basis in Dalian was 77 (down 2), in Tianjin was 47 (down 2), in Dongguan and Zhanjiang was - 23 (down 2), and in Fangcheng was - 33 (down 2). The basis in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang was - 13 (down 2) [4]. - Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis: In Guangdong, the basis was up 19, and MJ - 5 was 193 (down 3) [4]. - Spread Data: The RM1 - 5 spread was 46 (down 15), the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in Guangdong was 300 (up 17), and the futures spread of the main contract was 539 (down 20) [5]. 3.2 Supply Situation - South American Production Forecast: According to CONB data, the forecasted production of Brazil's new crop in 25/26 is 177.6 million tons. As of November 15th, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 69.0% (last week: 68.4%, last year: 73.8%, five - year average: 67.2%). As of November 13th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 16% (last week: 7%, last year: 25%) [7]. - Domestic Supply: The purchase progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. The domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be relatively loose, with an expected inventory reduction from November to December [7][8]. 3.3 Demand Situation - Livestock and Poultry Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short - term, supporting the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, with strong downstream far - month trading volume and good提货 performance [8]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - Domestic Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, with an expected inventory reduction from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].