Soochow Securities·2025-11-26 05:21Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [61]. Core Views - October sales figures for the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations across production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports, with significant year-on-year growth [5][18]. - The overall industry inventory increased slightly, remaining at a reasonable level, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8 [19]. - The structural performance showed that engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in October, with a notable increase in natural gas heavy truck sales and penetration rates [24][27]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In October, the production of heavy trucks reached 104,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 78.4% and 2.6% respectively [5]. - Wholesale sales were 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [2][5]. - Terminal sales totaled 70,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 56.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5][15]. - Exports amounted to 33,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 43.8% and a month-on-month increase of 4.8% [5][18]. - The total inventory in the industry increased by 0.09 million units, with a current total of 115,000 units [19]. Market Structure - In terms of vehicle types, engineering vehicles had a terminal sales volume of 7,400 units, with year-on-year growth of 63.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.9% [24]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3 percentage points [27]. Competitive Landscape - In the wholesale market, the market shares for major manufacturers in October were as follows: Dongfeng (22.5%), Heavy Truck (26.5%), and Foton (13.1%), with Foton showing the largest year-on-year increase [32]. - In the terminal market, the market shares were: Dongfeng (17.9%), Heavy Truck (17.9%), and Foton (13.8%), with Foton showing a significant year-on-year increase [35]. - For exports, Heavy Truck led with a market share of 45.8%, followed by Dongfeng (9.3%) and Foton (5.4%) [37]. Engine Market - The engine market share in October was led by Weichai with 20.5%, followed by Cummins (17.1%) and Xichai (14.7%) [46]. - Weichai's terminal supply volume was 14,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 64.7% [51].