信用周报：涨不动后，信用如何参与？-20251126

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After more than a month of continuous recovery, the coupon attractiveness of credit bonds has declined, and the market has shown mixed performance. Currently, the coupon strategy remains the optimal choice, but the bond - selection space has narrowed. 2 - 3Y AA(2) and above weak - quality urban investment bond sinking can still be considered, and it is not recommended to pursue ultra - long - term credit bonds for band trading. There is a small window period for band trading of Tier 2 capital bonds, and medium - to high - grade 4 - 5Y bonds with yields above 2.1% - 2.2% can be appropriately considered [1][35][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance of Credit Bonds - Last week, interest - rate bonds fluctuated strongly, while credit bonds showed mixed performance for two consecutive weeks. Low - credit - grade and commercial financial bonds had relatively better market performance. Since the National Day holiday in October, credit bonds had continuously recovered for nearly a month, but starting from mid - November, the support for further decline in yields was insufficient. The yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds also showed mixed performance, with 7Y performing better than 10Y, and only the yields of ultra - long - term urban investment bonds with the weakest liquidity recovered against the trend [1][11][13]. - From November 17th to 21st, 2025, the 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y Treasury bond yields changed by - 1.0BP, - 0.1BP, - 0.5BP, - 0.7BP, and + 0.9BP respectively. The yields of the same - term AAA medium - term notes changed by - 0.4BP, - 0.1BP, - 2.3BP, + 0.4BP, and + 2.9BP respectively; the yields of AA + medium - term notes changed by - 0.4BP, - 0.1BP, - 1.3BP, + 1.4BP, and + 0.9BP respectively [11][12]. - The AAA/AA + 10Y medium - term note yields increased by 0.57BP, the AAA/AA + 10Y urban investment bond yields decreased by 2.16BP and 1.15BP respectively, the AAA - 10Y bank Tier 2 capital bond yields increased by 0.98BP, and the 10Y Treasury bond yields increased by 0.26BP [13]. Performance of Tier 2 Capital Bonds - Since mid - November, Tier 2 capital bonds have shown large fluctuations, with the "volatility amplifier" feature reappearing, and the decline is higher than that of the same - term general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 0.87BP, 1.39BP, 1.36BP, 0.06BP, 1.64BP, 0.68BP, and 0.98BP respectively. Currently, the part of the curve above 4 years is still 30BP - 50BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, only the yield points of ultra - long - term bonds above 5 years are higher than the previous round [2][17]. - Last week, the buying volume of Tier 2 capital bonds was relatively strong, but it decreased marginally compared with the previous week. From November 17th to 21st, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of Tier 2 capital bonds was 100.00%, 100.00%, 82.50%, 100.00%, and 42.50% respectively; the average transaction duration decreased compared with the previous week. The amplitude of low - valuation transactions was generally low, and the amplitude of discount transactions was also small [19][20]. Market of Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds - The selling pressure of ultra - long - term credit bonds has weakened for two consecutive weeks. Last week, the focus of discount transactions returned to individual bonds with credit flaws. About 57% of the discount transaction amplitudes were above 4BP, and individual bonds with credit flaws such as AVIC Industry - Finance became the trading focus again, with a trading proportion of up to 13% [3][21]. - The willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was also not strong. The market trading focus was still on weak - quality urban investment bonds. Although some institutions had a strong willingness to buy, the proportion of ultra - long - term credit bonds in transactions with an amplitude of 3BP and above was not high, and such transactions were mainly 2 - 5Y AA(2) and AA - weak - quality urban investment bonds [3][24]. Institutional Behavior - The net buying of general credit bonds by public funds has weakened, mainly for bonds within 3Y. The incremental demand brought by amortized debt funds may be weakened. Starting from late November, the opening rhythm of amortized debt funds with a closed - end period of more than 3 years will slow down. Last week, funds net - bought 138.72 billion yuan of credit bonds within 1Y, 127.47 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds, and 73.60 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, with low demand for credit bonds above 7Y [3][28]. - The buying of credit bonds by wealth management products has also slowed down. Last week, wealth management products mainly net - bought 41.74 billion yuan of credit bonds within 1Y and 21.47 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds. Since November, the weekly capital inflow scale of wealth management products has been average, and there is no significant incremental support on the demand side [28].