日度策略参考-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - A-shares lack a clear upward trend due to a relatively vacuum macro environment, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be digested through index fluctuations, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Market sentiment is volatile, leading to price fluctuations in various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Industry Stock Index - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for further upward movement [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices may fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: High - level fluctuations are expected due to limited industrial driving forces and repeated macro sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Prices will fluctuate around the cost line, and attention should be paid to ore prices [1]. - Zinc: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to short - term repeated macro sentiment [1]. - Nickel: Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals, but short - term mine premiums are stable. With planned production cuts in Indonesian intermediate products and slightly improved macro conditions, nickel prices have a short - term repair expectation. The medium - to - long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and social inventories are increasing. Steel mill production cuts in November are limited. Futures prices will fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. Consider light - position participation in long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategies and look for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Short - term supply has not recovered, and unexpected risks have increased, leading to stronger prices. However, due to existing demand pressure, caution is needed when chasing high prices. The medium - to - long - term outlook is positive, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1]. Precious Metals - With the probability of a December interest rate cut rising again and the news of the Ukraine - Russia peace agreement, precious metals are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. New Energy - related Commodities - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is recovering, while southwest production is weaker than in previous years. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly reducing production. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and terminal installation is increasing in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polysilicon: Prices are fluctuating, and market sentiment has faded due to the long - awaited non - implementation of anti - involution policies [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel Products - Rebar: Although the valuation is low, the price increase is limited due to the off - season and a short - term macro vacuum. Consider participating in the virtual value accumulation strategy [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract has upward potential. The basis is acceptable, and consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage or using option strategies [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. Coking Products - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Adopt a short - term strategy for unilateral trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash out hedging short positions [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor of the US delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel raw material subsidies is refuted, which is bullish for US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic high - pressure crushing may lead to a stable - to - weak basis, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of new cotton, but there is no clear upward driver. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight, leading to a price rebound. However, selling pressure is postponed, so be cautious about being bullish and pay attention to farmers' selling and logistics [1]. - Soybean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US. If there are no significant weather problems, the market will gradually turn to trading the South American new - crop harvest pressure from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. Demand recovery needs to be verified, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation is weak but has been priced in. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pig: Spot prices are stable, but there is still room for capacity release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US is increasing sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Follows crude oil in the short - term, with the probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan construction demand being falsified, and sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Raw material cost support is strong, the basis is low, and intermediate inventories may increase [1]. - BR Rubber: The price of butadiene has limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a positive outlook. However, high inventory restricts price increases, and the synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound [1]. - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene prices support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Follows the decline of crude oil prices, with slightly stronger cost support from rising coal prices, but new device production expectations suppress price increases [1]. - Short - fiber: Follows cost fluctuations closely [1]. - Styrene: Asian benzene prices are weak, and US pure benzene prices are rising. The price will fluctuate [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, with cost - end support [1]. - PP: High supply pressure, weak downstream demand improvement, and strong cost support [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and orders are poor [1]. - Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine: There are issues such as delivery schedules, overhauls, and inventory pressures. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - PG: Geopolitical and tariff relations are easing, and the market is in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices and the decline of far - month spreads [1]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: December price increases are lower than expected, and the peak - season price increase expectation has been priced in early. The monthly shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].