集运日报：复航传言导致盘面大幅跳水，官方已辟谣，受交易情绪影响较大，建议观望为主，运价无明显波动-20251126

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The rumor of resuming shipping led to a significant drop in the market, but the official has refuted it. The market is greatly affected by trading sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see as the freight rate has no obvious fluctuation [2] - The issue of China-US tariffs is still a short - term solution in the form of an extension. The logic of freight rate trends returns to traditional seasonality and when shipping in the Red Sea will resume. Currently, the spot price has slightly declined. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of the spot freight rate. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4] - The market dropped significantly with high trading volume. The long - short game is intense, and the market fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] - On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [3] - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European line was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [3] - On November 21, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In October, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5 (previous - 9.2) [3] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In October, the US S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4] Contract Information - On November 25, the main contract 2602 closed at 1453.5, with a decline of 7.78%, a trading volume of 51,400 lots, and an open interest of 48,200 lots, a decrease of 4946 lots from the previous day [4] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has pulled back, and the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - takers were previously advised to go long lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract. After the significant market drop, it's not recommended to add more positions or hold losses. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5]