光大期货能化商品日报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is under pressure and fluctuates repeatedly due to the possible peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Various energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, WTI January contract closed down $0.89 to $57.95 per barrel, a decline of 1.51%; Brent January contract closed down $0.89 to $62.48 per barrel, a decline of 1.4%; SC2601 closed at 443 yuan per barrel, down 4.4 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.98%. OPEC+ may keep production unchanged, and India's crude oil imports from Russia will change. The oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.36% at 2491 yuan per ton; the low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2601 closed down 1.31% at 3015 yuan per ton. The supply in December may tighten, and the absolute prices of FU and LU remain weak for now [1][2]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan per ton. The spot market exerts pressure on the futures, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to remain loose. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Polyester: TA601 closed down 0.51% at 4656 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.28% at 3873 yuan per ton. The production and operation of the polyester industry have certain characteristics, and the prices of relevant products are expected to fluctuate [2]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed down 195 yuan per ton to 15125 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported [3][4]. - Methanol: The prices of related products are given. The supply at home and abroad changes, and the port inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][4][6]. - Polyolefins: The supply will remain high, and the demand will weaken. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The price may fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on November 25th and 24th, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc. [8]. 3.3 Market News - Multiple news media reported that Ukraine has reached an agreement on the terms of a potential peace agreement, and President Zelensky may visit the US to finalize the agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war [13]. - Kpler's preliminary data shows that India's crude oil imports from Russia in November will reach the highest level in five months [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - Main Contract Basis: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [32][33][38]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][47][48]. - Inter - variety Spread: It includes the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and foreign markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62][65][67]. - Production Profit: It shows the production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [75][76][77].