光大期货金融期货日报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile," and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, the market rebounded with all three major indices rising, over 4300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume exceeded 1.82 trillion yuan. After the liquidity-driven market since June ended, the market refocused on fundamentals. The new productive forces represented by AI, especially the upstream hardware manufacturing in the technology sector, have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, but lack further catalysts and have entered a volatile phase since November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a recovery process but are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week. It is expected that the index will be volatile in the short term [1] - For treasury bond futures, the central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and announced 10000 billion yuan of MLF, with a net withdrawal of 54 billion yuan. The liquidity is reasonably abundant, but the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the bond market lacks upward momentum. With the domestic economic data in a vacuum in late November, the bond market is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market rebounded throughout the day, with all three major indices rising. Over 4300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume exceeded 1.82 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. After the liquidity - driven market since June ended, the market refocused on fundamentals. The new productive forces represented by AI, especially the upstream hardware manufacturing in the technology sector, have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, but lack further catalysts and have entered a volatile phase since November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a recovery process but are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week. It is expected that the index will be volatile in the short term [1] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract down 0.33%, the 10 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 2 - year main contract up 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract basically flat. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on November 25th, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 4075 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 9000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 54 billion yuan. In terms of funds, DR001 dropped 0.02BP to 1.32%, and DR007 dropped 2BP to 1.45%. With the central bank's continuous support, liquidity is reasonably abundant, but the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, with the domestic economic data in a vacuum in late November, the bond market is expected to trade in a narrow range [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH rose from 2944.4 to 2959.2, up 0.50%; IF rose from 4435.2 to 4473.0, up 0.85%; IC rose from 6827.6 to 6900.0, up 1.06%; IM rose from 7095.2 to 7172.0 up 1.08% [3] - For stock indices, the Shanghai 50 rose from 2950.6 to 2968.2, up 0.60%; the CSI 300 rose from 4448.0 to 4490.4, up 0.95%; the CSI 500 rose from 6869.0 to 6954.6, up 1.25%; the CSI 1000 rose from 7156.4 to 7249.9, up 1.31% [3] - For treasury bond futures, TS was basically flat, TF was down 0.01%, T was down 0.11%, and TL was down 0.52% [3] 3.3 Market News - The China - US presidential phone call on November 25th was initiated by the US, with a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere. The two leaders communicated on issues of common concern, which is important for the stable development of China - US relations [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][8] 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][14][20] 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][29] 3.5 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [33] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly follows stock index futures, focusing on macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market fund tracking. His futures qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [33]