光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 4.47% to 95,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 92,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 89,650 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 81,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 105 tons to 26,615 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons. In October, the import of lithium carbonate increased by 22% to 24,000 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials increased by 118 tons to 19,002 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 79 tons to 19,290 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 118 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 2,154 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been destocked for 14 consecutive weeks to 118,400 tons, and the inventory turnover days have decreased to 26.8 days [3]. - The weekly inventory continued the destocking trend last week, but the marginal change shows that the weekly destocking has slowed down. The weighted contract positions are still large, with risks of continued position reduction and transfer. Although the market sentiment was boosted by news on November 25, the fundamentals may weaken marginally, leading to a short - term downward risk in prices. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long after over - decline or the full release of negative factors [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 95,400 yuan/ton, up 4,920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 95,340 yuan/ton, up 5,140 yuan. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan/ton, except for the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), which decreased by 0.05 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 160,500 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,400 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 10,870 yuan/ton; the price difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 276 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased, with the exception of some materials whose prices remained unchanged. - Cells and batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, while the prices of some products increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends over time [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [11][15]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences such as the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025 [18]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - The report provides charts of the prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials (including various types of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends [23][25]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [31]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The report shows charts of the inventory of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025, reflecting the inventory changes [35]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The report provides a chart of the production costs of lithium carbonate (including cash production profits from different raw materials) from 2024 to 2025, showing the cost - profit situation [39].