光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日）-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices showed a weak oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,630 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. Spot prices mostly dropped by 10 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with a daily output of 201,100 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. Demand is not actively following up, with spot sales rates in the range of 5% - 50% in most areas. The market is expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to demand, spot transactions, gas - head enterprise starts, exports, and Indian tender dynamics [2]. - Soda ash futures prices had a wide - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,173 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.26%. Spot prices were mostly stable, with light ash prices in some areas up by 20 yuan/ton. Supply remained stable, with an operating rate of 82.26%. Demand follow - up slowed down, and the market maintained a low - level wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to start - up and production capacity dynamics, downstream production line changes, macro - policies, and overall market sentiment [2]. - Glass futures prices showed a firm oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.1%. Spot prices continued to decline. With more cold repairs in the glass industry, supply decreased, and demand remained positive, with sales rates in most areas above 100%. The short - term performance is firm, but the weak demand still restricts the upward movement. Attention should be paid to supply changes, spot transactions, macro - policies, and overall market trends [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information Urea - On November 25, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,302, a decrease of 268 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 895 [5]. - On November 25, the daily output of the urea industry was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous workday and an increase of 11,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [5]. - On November 25, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions: Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 25, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,652, an increase of 1,134 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,385. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 25, the spot prices of soda ash: In North China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in East China, light ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in South China, light ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 930 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 25, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous workday [8]. - On November 25, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The daily output of the industry was 157,200 tons, a daily decrease of 900 tons [8]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][13][20][21]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on sugar industry research and has won multiple awards [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].