Dongguan Securities·2025-11-26 07:03Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes two main investment lines: first, the continuous growth in downstream demand and the improvement in supply-demand dynamics, which present opportunities for both fundamentals and valuations, prioritizing leading companies with technological and cost advantages in the industry chain. Second, it highlights the opportunities arising from the industrialization of solid-state batteries, focusing on the equipment sector and high-value solid electrolyte core materials, while continuously monitoring the evolution of new anode and cathode materials [5][39]. Market Overview and Valuation - As of November 21, 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 45.98% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 32.79 percentage points. The solid-state battery index has risen by 55.10% during the same period, also surpassing the CSI 300 index [14][17]. - The overall PE (TTM) of the lithium battery sector is approximately 29 times, placing the sector's valuation at the 48.83% historical percentile over the past five years [17] Global Lithium Battery Demand - Global lithium battery shipments are projected to reach 1545.1 GWh in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.5%. In the first nine months of 2025, global lithium battery production reached 1590.24 GWh, marking a 49.13% increase year-on-year [20][22]. - The demand for lithium batteries is driven by both power batteries and energy storage batteries, with energy storage batteries experiencing higher growth rates [23]. New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Growth - In China, NEV sales are expected to maintain growth, with a penetration rate surpassing 50%. From January to October 2025, cumulative NEV sales reached 12.943 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [27][30]. - The report anticipates that NEV sales in China will continue to grow rapidly in 2026, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and technological advancements [28][48]. Energy Storage Market Dynamics - The global energy storage battery demand is expected to maintain high growth, with a cumulative shipment of 428 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.7% [60]. - In China, energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 580 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 70% [66]. Supply-Demand Dynamics in the Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a turning point, with significant growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, reversing the downward trend of the previous two years [77][81]. - The report indicates that the overall demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow by 30% in 2026, while supply growth in the materials sector is anticipated to lag behind demand growth, leading to potential supply-demand tightness in various segments of the industry chain [95]. Solid-State Battery Industrialization - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, with a diverse range of application scenarios. Solid-state batteries are expected to be a core technology direction for the next generation of lithium batteries due to their high energy density and safety advantages [97]. - Major global automotive manufacturers have announced timelines for the deployment of solid-state batteries, with many planning to introduce them around 2027 [98].