Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also analyzes important fundamental information such as产区天气, international and domestic supply - demand, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and arbitrage tracking. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 02 was 3985.00, with a previous day's decline of 1.60% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. - Brent crude oil futures contract 02 on ICE closed at 61.90, with a previous day's decline of 1.32% and an overnight increase of 1.13% [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract 01 closed at 58.11, with a previous day's decline of 1.32% and an overnight increase of 1.36% [1]. - CBOT soybean futures contract 01 closed at 1124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.25% and an overnight increase of 0.02% [1]. - CBOT soybean meal futures contract 01 closed at 320.50, with a previous day's increase of 0.82% and an overnight decline of 0.40% [1]. - CBOT soybean oil futures contract 01 closed at 50.63, with a previous day's increase of 0.30% and an overnight increase of 1.61% [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 99.83, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8540, with a basis of 110 and no change from the previous day; in East China, it was 8430, with a basis of 0 and no change; in South China, it was 8380, with a basis of - 50 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8370, with a basis of 192 and a decrease of 6 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 8450, with a basis of 272 and a decrease of 6; in Guangdong, it was 8480, with a basis of 302 and a decrease of 6; in Tianjin, it was 8310, with a basis of 132 and a decrease of 26 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 2990, with a basis of - 28 and a decrease of 2 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2980, with a basis of - 38 and a decrease of 2; in Guangdong, it was 2970, with a basis of - 48 and a decrease of 2; in Tianjin, it was 3050, with a basis of 32 and a decrease of 2 [2]. Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In southern Brazil, soil moisture will slowly decline. In the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, it will be generally dry from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures will be near to below normal on Tuesday, near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday, and above normal on Friday. In the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern Goiás, there will be scattered showers before Friday, and temperatures will be near normal. Overall, December rainfall is predicted to be below normal, but the situation may improve as local crops enter the growing season [4]. - In Argentina's main soybean - producing areas, an overall dry pattern has emerged. Although soil moisture is still high in the early growing season, a dry pattern has set in. A front will bring scattered showers on Friday and Saturday, followed by dry conditions until December. Due to the lack of high - temperature weather, the decline in soil moisture will slow down [4]. International Supply and Demand - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 1,041,935 tons, a 18.8% decrease from the same period last month [6]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month [6]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 78.64 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 78.50 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous week and a 9% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0.14 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean oil export sales increased by a net of 0.19 million tons, below expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0.19 million tons, and next - market - year export sales increased by a net of 0 tons [7]. - As of the week ending October 9, US soybean meal export sales increased by a net of 35.55 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year export sales increased by a net of 35.84 million tons, a 6% increase from the previous week and a 517% increase from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales decreased by a net of 0.29 million tons [8]. - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.73 per bushel, a 12.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - The US Agriculture Secretary indicated that the Trump administration is expected to announce a package of aid for US farmers within two weeks [9]. - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in November would reach 4.4 million tons (down from the previous forecast of 4.71 million tons), and soybean meal exports would be 2.5 million tons (down from the previous forecast of 2.68 million tons) [9]. - Argentina's soybean crushing volume in October was 4,036,171 tons, with a soybean oil output of 794,211 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,976,944 tons. As of November 1, 2025, the factory's soybean inventory was 2,798,823 tons, soybean oil inventory was 296,624 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1,050,328 tons [9]. - As of November 21, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.12 million tons (compared to 1.36 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 4.66 million tons (compared to 5.41 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 7.02 million tons (compared to 7.83 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 1.51 million tons (compared to 2.53 million tons last year) [10]. - Canada's AAFC maintained its forecast for the 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.028 million tons, exports at 7 million tons, domestic use at 12.226 million tons, and ending inventory at 2.5 million tons [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for the ninth consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly two years, driven by stronger freight rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels [11]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 25, the trading volume of soybean oil was 2000 tons, and palm oil was 1600 tons, with a total trading volume of 3600 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons (44%) from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 25, the trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 14.26 million tons, an increase of 4.72 million tons from the previous trading day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 60.27%, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 19, the national average hog price was 12.24 yuan/kg, a 1.61% decrease from November 12; the average corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.28 yuan/kg, a 0.88% increase from November 12; the hog - to - corn ratio was 5.37, a 2.36% decrease from November 12 [12]. - On November 25, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.94, up 0.24 points from the previous day; the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" was 128.13, up 0.28 points from the previous day [13]. Macro - economic News International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [15]. - The US September PPI annual rate was 2.7% (in line with expectations, up from 2.6% previously), the monthly rate was 0.3% (in line with expectations, up from - 0.1% previously), the September retail sales monthly rate was 0.2% (lower than the expected 0.4%, down from 0.6% previously) [15]. - The US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 88.7 (lower than the expected 93.4, down from 94.6 previously) [15]. - The US November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was - 15 (lower than the expected - 5, down from - 4 previously) [15]. - The US October Pending Home Sales Index monthly rate was 1.9% (higher than the expected 0.5%, up from a revised 0.1% previously) [15]. - The US September S&P/CS 20 - City Unadjusted House Price Index annual rate was 1.4% (in line with expectations, down from 1.58% previously), and the FHFA House Price Index monthly rate was 0% (lower than the expected 0.2%, down from 0.40% previously) [15]. - The US August Business Inventory monthly rate was 0% (lower than the expected 0.1%, down from a revised 0.1% previously) [16]. - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 21 was - 1.859 million barrels (compared to 4.448 million barrels previously) [16]. Domestic News - On November 25, the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.0826, down 21 points (indicating RMB appreciation) [18]. - On November 25, the People's Bank of China conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF and 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 1005.4 billion yuan [18]. Fund Flows - On November 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 7.469 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 7.242 billion yuan in commodity futures (451 million yuan in agricultural product futures, a net outflow of 269 million yuan in chemical futures, 269 million yuan in black - series futures, and 6.79 billion yuan in metal futures), a net inflow of 21 million yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 178 million yuan in treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.
国富期货早间看点：ITS马棕11月前25日出口环比减18.8%，USDA美豆当周出口合计净增78.64万吨-20251126
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-11-26 07:09