Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-26 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO (MNSO) [1][10] Core Insights - MINISO reported strong revenue growth in 3Q25, achieving Rmb5.80 billion, which is above consensus estimates of Rmb5.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [4][10] - The company's gross margin remained stable at 44.7%, with an adjusted EBITDA of Rmb1.35 billion, up 18.8% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of Rmb770 million, which was below consensus expectations [4][7] - Domestic same-store sales (SSS) growth is accelerating, with the MINISO brand generating Rmb5.22 billion in revenue, a 22.9% increase year-on-year, driven by accelerated store openings and improved sales performance [5][10] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with 3,424 overseas stores by the end of 3Q25, marking a net increase of 117 stores quarter-on-quarter [6][10] - MINISO is innovating its store formats, launching MINISO LAND and MINISO FRIENDS concepts, which are expected to attract a broader customer base and enhance sales [9][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for MINISO are as follows: - 2023: Rmb13,839 million - 2024: Rmb16,994 million - 2025E: Rmb21,330 million - 2026E: Rmb24,804 million - 2027E: Rmb28,448 million - The expected growth rates are 39.4% for 2023, 22.8% for 2024, and 25.5% for 2025 [2][3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been slightly lowered to Rmb2.83 billion for FY25E, Rmb3.38 billion for FY26E, and Rmb3.98 billion for FY27E [10]