机械行业月报：十五五规划强调科技自立，未来产业引领，重点关注周期复苏和未来产业投资机遇-20251126

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and future industry leadership, focusing on cyclical recovery and investment opportunities in emerging industries related to the mechanical sector [2][6]. - In November, the mechanical sector underperformed, with a decline of 5.02%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 1.78 percentage points, ranking 26th among 30 sectors [5][12]. - Key sub-sectors such as aerial work vehicles, other transportation equipment, and shipbuilding showed positive growth, while lithium battery equipment, forklifts, and photovoltaic equipment faced declines [5][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Performance - As of November 25, 2025, the mechanical sector's decline of 5.02% was noted, with specific sub-sectors like aerial work vehicles and shipbuilding showing positive growth rates of 2.22%, 1.35%, and 0.31% respectively [5][12]. - The sector's valuation is at a high level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.4, placing it in the 71st percentile of the past decade [17][20]. 2. Engineering Machinery - Sales of excavators reached 18,096 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44%) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.9%) [21][32]. - The report suggests that the engineering machinery sector is in a recovery phase, with leading companies like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG expected to see improved performance due to favorable domestic policies and increasing export competitiveness [44]. 3. Robotics - The production of industrial robots increased by 17.9% in October, reaching 57,858 units, with a cumulative production of 602,700 units for the year, reflecting a growth of 28.8% [45][48]. - The report highlights the potential of humanoid robots as a significant growth area, with companies like Ubiquity Robotics securing substantial orders, indicating a strong market demand [47][54]. 4. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a recovery, with ongoing improvements in profitability despite a recent adjustment in new ship orders [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in leading shipbuilding companies to capitalize on the sector's upward trend [6]. 5. AIDC Equipment - The AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) equipment sector is noted for its growth, with recommendations to focus on companies benefiting from this trend [6][54].