Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-26 09:10Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The international market is moving towards a situation of loose supply, the raw sugar market lacks positive driving factors, and prices remain low. In the domestic market, the new sugar season has fully started. Some sugar mills' crushing progress has been delayed due to rainfall. With the low international raw sugar prices and high sales profits of processing enterprises, the imported sugar volume increased significantly in October, resulting in obvious import supply pressure. Short - term sugar prices show no sign of stopping the decline and are expected to continue to be weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Category 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; the main contract position is 394,080 lots, a decrease of 12,249 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,693, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for sugar is - 62,644 lots. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,114 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,163 yuan/ton [2] 2. Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,214 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,277 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,595 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2] 4. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 602.29 million tons, a decrease of 12 million tons. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 241.88 million tons, unchanged. The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 75 million tons, an increase of 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, an increase of 74 million tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, an increase of 34.39 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2] 6. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.05%, an increase of 0.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 9.05%, an increase of 0.25%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.76%, a decrease of 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.01%, unchanged [2] 7. Industry News - Brazil's export data shows that in the first three weeks of November, Brazil exported 2.564 million tons of sugar, with a daily average export volume of 183,000 tons, a 3% increase compared to the daily average export volume of the whole month of November last year. The ICE raw sugar futures rose on Tuesday, with the most actively traded March raw sugar futures rising 0.09 cents or 0.6% to settle at 14.82 cents per pound [2]