Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-26 09:09Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The L2601 contract of polyethylene fell 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of Zhongtianhechuang's shutdown continued, and new maintenance units were added in Wanhua Chemical, Zhongying Petrochemical, and Jilin Petrochemical, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, with a slight decline in the agricultural film operating rate and a small increase in the packaging film operating rate. Factory and social inventories decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not significant. Oil - based and coal - based profits remained in a theoretical loss state. This week, the Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical units are planned for maintenance, while the Zhongying Petrochemical, Zhongtianhechuang, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical units are scheduled to restart, so PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month, with relatively high supply. The demand center of greenhouse films has shifted south, and southern orders support the high operating rate of agricultural film enterprises; the orders for packaging films have decreased, and the operating rate is expected to decline. In terms of cost, due to statements from US and Ukrainian officials indicating that Ukraine has in principle agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, international oil prices closed lower yesterday. In the short term, the situation of supply exceeding demand for LLDPE may continue, with limited cost - side support, and L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6,680 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 1 - month contract closed at 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 5 - month contract closed at 6,768 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the 9 - month contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The trading volume was 396,126 lots, an increase of 148,413 lots, and the open interest was 497,599 lots, an increase of 9,240 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 61, down 3. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 517,178 lots, an increase of 15,973 lots; the short positions were 619,508 lots, an increase of 23,786 lots; the net long positions were - 102,330 lots, a decrease of 7,813 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,865.22 yuan/ton, down 22.17 yuan; in East China, it was 7,092.38 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The basis was 158.22, an increase of 32.83 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.27 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 560.88 US dollars/ton, down 1.75 US dollars. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 82.71%, down 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging films was 50.93%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; for pipes, it was 32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 49.91%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.45%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.87%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.24%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, China's total polyethylene production was 670,300 tons, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.2% from the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.1% from the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.5% from the previous period. As of November 26th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 454,000 tons, a decrease of 9.80% from the previous period; as of November 21st, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous period. From November 15th to 21st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 7,285 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 3.86 yuan/ton to - 409.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.06% month - on - month to 7,047 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 75.57 yuan/ton to - 107 yuan/ton [2]