瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - V2601 fluctuated slightly, closing at 4489 yuan/ton. Last week, Shandong Xinfa's 250,000 - ton calcium carbide - based PVC plant restarted, and the operating load of some plants was adjusted. The domestic PVC capacity utilization rate increased slightly. [3] - The downstream operating rate continued to decline, with the operating rates of pipes and profiles both decreasing. The social inventory increased slightly, with high pressure. [3] - The cost decreased due to the price drop of upstream raw materials, but the losses of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based processes deepened because the spot price of PVC dropped more significantly. [3] - Henan Lianchuang's 400,000 - ton plant is expected to restart this week, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to further increase. [3] - As the temperature drops, the terminal demand in infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream operating rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. [3] - India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax policy on imported PVC have ended, but the short - term export market may be in a wait - and - see state as the Asian December contract prices are released this week. [3] - The prices of upstream calcium carbide and ethylene are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the positive impact on the cost side is blocked under the high - operating background of PVC in winter. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4450. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the trading volume was 583,601 lots, a decrease of 17,084 lots; the open interest was 1,227,649 lots, a decrease of 33,859 lots. [3] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 1,065,746 lots, an increase of 6,223 lots; the sell order volume was 1,265,490 lots, a decrease of 4,013 lots; the net buy order volume was - 199,744 lots, an increase of 10,236 lots. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In East China, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4486.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 21.92 yuan. [3] - In South China, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4665 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4510.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06 yuan. [3] - The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 630 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2656.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2519 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 476 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 538 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.83%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.31%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.12%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points. [3] - The total social inventory of PVC was 526,700 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons; the total social inventory in East China was 480,500 tons, a decrease of 4,400 tons; the total social inventory in South China was 46,200 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.35. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters. [3] - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 652,939.03 million square meters, an increase of 4,359.03 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 389.8297 billion yuan, an increase of 31.191 billion yuan. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.13%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.34%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC was 14.82%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.83%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points. [3] 3.7 Industry News - From November 15th to 21st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. [3] - From November 15th to 21st, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.35% month - on - month to 49.19%. Among them, the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.4% month - on - month to 40.2%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.66% month - on - month to 36.3%. [3] - As of November 20th, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.41% week - on - week to 1.0326 million tons. [3] - From November 15th to 21st, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5110 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5224 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 848 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 516 yuan/ton. [3]